Ontario could see COVID-19 infection rates spike sharply in the New Year, regardless of the still-unknown impact of the new Omicron variant.
But the province’s Science Advisory Table says increasing the speed of vaccinations for children between five and eleven in the coming weeks would help keep infection rates down, as would the reimposition of some public health measures.
Discounting Omicron while warning it is likely to drive cases even higher, it released new projections Tuesday showing there could be up to 3,000 new cases a day by the middle of January, straining the capacity of hospital intensive care units.
The panel said infections are likely to triple the current daily average of just under 1,000 if Ontario sticks with its current public health restrictions and 30 per cent of children between five and eleven are fully vaccinated by the end of this month.
In the event that 50 per cent of kids are fully vaccinated, then the models predict 1,500 to 1,800 daily COVID-19 cases halfway through January.
In a third hypothetical situation, additional public health restrictions resulting in a 15 per cent decrease in transmission rates – combined with 30 per cent of children being fully immunized – would keep new infections to about 1,100 a day.
The projections are based on a consensus across models from four scientific teams
Around 22 per cent of Ontario children between five and eleven had received a first dose of vaccine as of Monday.
Public health units such as Windsor-Essex County have recently reimposed some restrictions including capacity limits for indoor and outdoor gatherings, and restaurants.
The province reported 928 new COVID-19 cases on Tuesday, including 424 among unvaccinated individuals, 401 involving fully vaccinated people, and 26 cases where the patients were partially vaccinated.
The vaccination status of the remaining 77 cases was unavailable.
The current seven-day average for daily cases is 975, compared with 794 last week and 675 two weeks ago.
Ontario’s most recent COVID-19 positivity test rate is 3.8 per cent, the highest since May when it was 4.3 per cent.
The Science Advisory Table cautioned that low global vaccine coverage means new variants can be expected to arise around the world.
Ontario could see COVID-19 infection rates spike sharply in the New Year, regardless of the still-unknown impact of the new Omicron variant.
But the province’s Science Advisory Table says increasing the speed of vaccinations for children between five and eleven in the coming weeks would help keep infection rates down, as would the reimposition of some public health measures.
Discounting Omicron while warning it is likely to drive cases even higher, it released new projections Tuesday showing there could be up to 3,000 new cases a day by the middle of January, straining the capacity of hospital intensive care units.
The panel said infections are likely to triple the current daily average of just under 1,000 if Ontario sticks with its current public health restrictions and 30 per cent of children between five and eleven are fully vaccinated by the end of this month.
In the event that 50 per cent of kids are fully vaccinated, then the models predict 1,500 to 1,800 daily COVID-19 cases halfway through January.
In a third hypothetical situation, additional public health restrictions resulting in a 15 per cent decrease in transmission rates – combined with 30 per cent of children being fully immunized – would keep new infections to about 1,100 a day.
The projections are based on a consensus across models from four scientific teams
Around 22 per cent of Ontario children between five and eleven had received a first dose of vaccine as of Monday.
Public health units such as Windsor-Essex County have recently reimposed some restrictions including capacity limits for indoor and outdoor gatherings, and restaurants.
The province reported 928 new COVID-19 cases on Tuesday, including 424 among unvaccinated individuals, 401 involving fully vaccinated people, and 26 cases where the patients were partially vaccinated.
The vaccination status of the remaining 77 cases was unavailable.
The current seven-day average for daily cases is 975, compared with 794 last week and 675 two weeks ago.
Ontario’s most recent COVID-19 positivity test rate is 3.8 per cent, the highest since May when it was 4.3 per cent.
The Science Advisory Table cautioned that low global vaccine coverage means new variants can be expected to arise around the world. – tbnewswatch.com
article website here
The key word here is ‘could’. Will it though? Who knows. Certainly not the Science Advisory Table or the consultants that are making a fortune creating these models that are supposed to predict the future. I can tell you right now that computer models are far from accurate. Predicting nature is almost impossible because there are sooo many variables to consider. There are soo many things we do not know. They are an educated guess at best. Not a prediction. A guess.
The beauty of all of these predictions is that there is no way of anyone verifying their accuracy.
You see, if the predictions come true, then they look all like Nostradamus followed by a bunch of ‘I told you so’ quotes in the press. We, the great unwashed, did not heed the warnings or follow the ‘health measure’ hard enough.
If the predictions do not come true, which is certainly the case, then it will be because we, the people listened and followed ‘healthy measures’ issued by the Science Advisory Table.
You see, the Science Advisory Table and their computer modelers can never be wrong. Nice.
There is an episode of Star Trek: The Next Generation that I feel is a good analogy of the situation we find ourselves in right now. Season 5 Episode 11, Hero Worship.
Suddenly, a shock wave hits the Enterprise and Timothy says that his ship was also hit by a shock wave. Picard tells Worf to raise shields, but a new shock wave is even stronger than the first one. More power is diverted to the shields and another wave hits and is even stronger. While listening to the banter between captain and the crew, Timothy remembers that the Vico‘s crew were doing the same procedures of adding more power to the shields. With Timothy by his side, Data heads to the science aft on the bridge, computing the shield’s strength and the rising strength of the shock waves. Picard and Geordi discuss putting the energy of the warp engine to the shields. Timothy states that is what they said the same “warp power to the shields” order on his ship.
Data suddenly asks Picard to lower the shields and Picard orders Worf to lower the shields, which he does. The next shock wave is harmless and the Enterprise is safe. Data had realized that giving energy to the shields caused even heavier shock waves (the more power the ship generated, the heavier the impact), and these were ultimately responsible for the destruction of Timothy’s ship. Due to Timothy’s memory and Data’s speedy analysis, the Enterprise has been saved from the Vico‘s fate. The Enterprise leaves the black cluster.
Sooo, are we making the virus stronger by inoculating everyone with ‘leaky vaccines’? I suspect that is the case. Its just a matter of time before a variant pops up that is immune to all of our pharmaceutical weapons. Is the fear porn that is being spewed by the Science Advisory Table and its media lackies going to be the end of civilization?
Natural immunity might have been our ticket to freedom last year. Protect the vulnerable and let the healthy use their immune systems to deal with the virus. I guess we will never know.
PS: There is another Star Trek: TNG episode where the Enterprise is stuck in a time loop, just like we now are. Coming up to two years now and little has changed. Looking at four ‘jabs now. One every six months. For how long? Until the money runs out. Until the people are fed up. Its all about money and control. Always has been